Axel Group Investments LLC
AXEL GROUP INVESTMENTS LLC
Reason #1 – California budget delayed yet again
We currently face a $19 billion budget deficit which comes out to 22 percent of the current general fund budget. This is a massive amount of money. The buck stops in Sacramento and virtually no one has a clear direction of where we are heading. In fact with an election year our amazing representatives are planning their election campaigns for November instead of dealing with the pressing issue at hand. We can blame the tactics on an election year but the budget has been in the red for over three years now. This crisis did not come on as a shock.
Now why would the budget crisis be an issue on real estate? First, there are only a couple of ways to plug the gap. You either raise revenues through higher taxes or simply having a better economy and collecting more. Clearly the fact that we are in a massive hole tells us that revenues are not coming in. The temptation for elected officials will be to tax even more although California is already massively taxed. In L.A. County many are already paying close to 10 percent in sales taxes! Need we mention city officials making $800,000 for tiny working class areas like Bell?
The other option you have is to cut. And this is an option the Governor is taking:
“(Business Spectator) Schwarzenegger has proposed slashing spending to balance the state’s books, an approach rejected by Democratic lawmakers. Their leaders in the state Senate and Assembly are trying to draft a joint plan likely to include proposals for tax increases to rival the governor’s budget plan.
By ordering furloughs, which he also did last year, Schwarzenegger is bringing pressure on state employee unions allied with Democratic lawmakers on the heels of losing a courtroom battle to cut state employees’ pay to the federal minimum wage to bolster the state’s finances.
Schwarzenegger’s new furlough order was instantly condemned by labor officials as a political ploy.”
I’m surprised that some of the better coverage on the California economy is coming from out of the country. Either way, you can see where the line is being drawn in the sand. Both of the above outcomes are not positive for California housing. More layoffs equates to less people able to afford homes. Higher taxes and people have less to spend on housing. The problem stems from the California economy relying on real estate for both jobs and spending and all this happened in a once in a lifetime bubble. That bubble has now burst yet the state budget structure is still relying on bubble revenue figures.
Reason #2 – Inventory growing
Source: MLS
The amount of inventory in Southern California has been growing steadily. In fact, we can pinpoint the actual growth to roughly March when we started to realize that programs like HAMP were merely smoke and mirrors operations to make the numbers appear better than they actually were. Now we are seeing more and more distressed property hitting the market. Keep in mind that the above chart is based on MLS data and this heavily understates the actual shadow inventory of problematic real estate. Not much has changed the calculus of toxic mortgages:
I’ve annotated the above chart to give a clearer view of where we are. Keep in mind that some banks have reworked option ARM loan products (50% of option ARMs are here in California) yet problems are still extremely high:
Now the above data is fascinating. California is home to half of these loans so it will be worth our time to look at this closely. From March of 2009 to March of 2010 we went from having 714,018 performingoption ARMs in the U.S. to 513,000 option ARMs in March of this year. As of today, roughly 34 percent of all option ARMs are not even current. These are toxic waste products. Why the big drop? Many of these ended up as foreclosures but many got pushed into interest only loans that buy a few more months (maybe a year or two) but these will default as well.
So inventory keeps growing because of problems in the system. I’ve kept meticulous data on the MLS for Southern California for close to four years. Let us examine the shift in makeup over the last few years:
September 2007
MLS listings: 166,514
Short sales + foreclosures: 9,711
Distressed inventory as percent of total MLS: 5.53%
September 2008
MLS listings: 133,388
Short sales + foreclosures: 48,951
Distressed inventory as percent of total MLS: 36.44%
September 2009
MLS listings: 69,936
Short sales + foreclosures: 19,702
Distressed inventory as percent of total MLS: 28.33%
August 2010
MLS listings: 83,677
Short sales + foreclosures: 25,562
Distressed inventory as percent of total MLS: 30.54%
So if we look at the above, from September of 2009 to August of 2010 you can see that distressed MLS inventory has jumped. But overall inventory has also increased. The earlier chart shows a steady increase at a time when typically inventory is depleted because of the spring and summer selling season. With tax credits finished and big MBS purchasing programs over, where do we go from here?
Reason #3 – California employment growth anemic
California unemployment still stands at 12.3 percent. What this means, is that the equivalent underemployment rate for the state is closer to 23 percent. If you look above, only three sectors actually experienced any jobs added over a 12 month period. How can overpriced areas in California maintain high prices without having a solid employment base? We know how we did it last time and it was through high leverage products like Alt-A and option ARMs. What do we have in our arsenal this time? Sure you can purchase a home with a 3.5% down payment via FHA insured loan products but you need to have verifiable income. And just because you can buy with government metrics, this doesn’t mean that it is a good reason to do so. The exponential growth in FHA insured loan defaults should explain why low down payments are not a good enough reason to purchase a home.
California employment growth is weak. And as we mentioned, the government is actually looking at slashing payrolls. The last decade had a massive amount of jobs that were built around the housing bubble and real estate consumption. Those are largely gone and won’t be coming back. What industry will step in? For these reasons betting on housing in California for the next few months is a losing bet.
Reason #4 – Government incentives burning out
In the time honored tradition of pandering, the California government pushed an incentive for new and first time home buyers in California. As would be expected, the money was eaten up quickly. This is $200 million that the state clearly does not have to spend (did we mention the $19 billion budget gap). So now, the state has combined the Fed tax credit with the state tax credit and low money down paymentFHA insured loans for the maximum effect. The only next step available is to give away homes to anyone that would want one. Clearly this momentum is burning out because there is no such thing as a free lunch (or home in this case).
There are only so many ways you can juice the market without having a healthy economy. At least during the housing bubble, people could get jobs in virtually any industry because credit was flowing like beer at a frat party. Anyone and everyone could get whatever they wanted. It reminded me of the dot come craze and any company with a webpage and dot com after their name would get a few million dollars in seed money. Those days are over. People now have a better understanding of real estate simply because they have been forced to pay attention instead of believing the “real estate always goes up” mantra.
Reason #5 – California buyer psychology
The fact that people have to pay full price on a mortgage is stunning to many. Those teaser rates created a big class of people that believed in the 5 or 7 and move up crowd. You know what I’m talking about here; these people believed that you buy a starter home, stay put for 5 to 7 years, let the magical David Blaine like effects of real estate appreciation work, and then you can sell and move into your McMansion. It was a clear path (at least it seemed that way). So five year option ARMs weren’t such a bad idea in their mind. Who cares that the loan exploded on the first day of year five because some other schmuck would be in the home with a new loan. The home buyer won. The mortgage broker and agent made out like bandits with giant commissions. The state made out like a champ by taxing those commissions. It seemed to be the perfect shell game. Those days are over and now the only game in town is the 30 year fixed mortgage (or the 15 year fixed but that is rare in California).
Given current prices in niche markets like the Westside, many people are simply vying to rent. Or the more realistic reason, they simply don’t qualify for a $600,000 loan on a tiny place in a prime location. There is no guarantee prices will go up. We did a comparative analysis between Japan and the U.S. and Japan had [has] weak prices for over two decades. Don’t take my word for it; listen to the Fed chief of St. Louis:
Homeowners
- For the homeowner, choosing to walk away never feels like a choice.
- Foreclosures are public record, but they represent real people in distress. Nothing good can come from posting these records openly for every nosy neighbor to see.
- For homeowners, a short sale is far better than foreclosure, which in turn is far better than bankruptcy.
- Foreclosure happens to the rich, to the poor, to the famous and to the unknown. In good neighborhoods and in bad. In economic booms as well as busts.
- Death, drugs, disease, divorce, and denial - the "Five D's" ensure we will never eliminate the need for foreclosure.
- The desire to be a homeowner is so strong that owners in foreclosure often say they'd rather die than lose their home. Those who understand this will realize that affordability is more important than appreciation.
- No matter how long it has been since the homeowner in foreclosure made their last payment, they are invariably broke.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Monday, July 26, 2010
Thursday, July 22, 2010
TODAY'S ECONOMY
Today, the average American’s net worth (adjusted for real inflation) is down to year 1970 levels. In terms of income, average hourly earnings in the U.S. is now at a record nominal high of $18.99; but adjusted for real inflation,
hourly earnings is now about half of what it was in the early 1970s. Americans have experienced a dramatic decline in their standard of living since 1970. During the 1970s, it was possible for American college students to pay their own tuition by working part time, without student loans or any help from their parents. (Besides paying their own tuition, many students in the 1970s could also afford their own car and apartment.) Today, college students need to get deeply into debt and have their parents help pay their tuition; students
can barely afford to pay for food and beer on their own.
The mainstream media today always makes the mistake of using changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to determine whether or not the U.S. is experiencing inflation. The CPI gets reported on a monthly basis by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). NIA conservatively believes that the methodologies
used today to calculate the CPI, understate the real rate of price inflation by at least 3% to 4%.
If the CPI is to be believed, Americans
today have about the same standard
of living that they had 40 years ago. However, all Americans can feel their standard of living decline. The CPI today no longer accounts for the cost to maintain the same standard of living, it more or less accounts for only the cost to stay alive. Adjusted for the real rate of inflation, Americans should be receiving Social Security payments that are approximately double what they receive today.
One of the ways the BLS understates the CPI is through geometric weighting,
which provides a higher weighting to goods that are falling in price and a lower weighting to goods that are rising
in price. If steak was rising in price but hamburgers were falling, the BLS will heavily weigh the CPI towards
4 National Inflation Association - www.inflation.us
hamburgers. Maybe they are right that some Americans would substitute steak with hamburgers in order to save money, but that would mean a decline in their standard of living.
The BLS also uses hedonics to understate inflation, which account for the increased pleasure of goods. Many IMAX theaters across the country are currently charging $20 for tickets to see the new movie “Shrek Forever After”. This is an astronomical price increase for a movie ticket, but with hedonics, it’s possible the CPI won’t show any price inflation
for this movie because it uses 3D technology.
In 2008 with the bursting Real Estate bubble, the U.S. economy was once again headed towards a depression like it should’ve experienced in 2001. Only this time, the magnitude of this depression would’ve likely rivaled the Great Depression of the 1930s. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, having not learned from Greenspan that you can’t reinflate a bubble through the manipulation of interest
rates.
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